The FGOALS-f2 weather-climate dynamic ensemble forecast display platform is an important service platform for Multi-model-Integrated Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction and Application in Disaster Risk Reduction (MISSPAD). It is jointly funded by Alliance of International Science Organizations in the Belt and Road Region (ANSO) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China major research project of the earth-atmosphere coupling system on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its global climate effect.
The core architecture of FGOALS-f2 weather and S2S prediction system is the climate system model CAS FGOALS-f2 of CAS/IAP/LASG. There are 4 fully coupled components of CAS FGOALS-f2, including atmospheric, oceanic, land, and sea ice modules. CAS FGOALS-f2 have two standard horizontal resolutions: 100 km and 25 km. The dynamic core of atmospheric component (FAMIL2) is FV3, and the key process of the physical processes in FAMIL2 is a resolved convection precipitation scheme (RCP) , which is independently developed.
The realtime prediction system covering the timescale from weather to season, and the prediction products cover both the global and regional areas (e.g. ENSO, Arctic Sea Ice, Tibet Plateau and B&R countries and regions). It provides forecasting services for disaster prevention and mitigation of weather in countries and regions along the “the Belt and Road”.
“一带一路”沿线国家由于特殊的地理位置，气象灾害频发。及时准确地预测极端气象灾害，是进行科学防灾的重要途径，对于保障人身安全和维护沿线国家的可持续发展至关重要。世界气象组织已将中长期天气-气候预测和极端事件列为重点研究内容。中科院大气所科学家牵头发起了“一带一路”防灾服务中长期天气-气候预测网络（Multi-model-Integrated Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction and Application in Disaster Risk Reduction ，简写MISSPAD)：①该计划将利用模式动力预测方法，依托我国的超算能力，将较成熟的天气气候预测服务扩展到带路目标区域；②与联盟成员国的业务中心紧密合作，提升对于洪涝、干旱、高温、寒潮和台风等气象灾害的预测能力；③将模拟预测产品应用于沿线国家和地区的气象灾害预测业务的同时，基于极端气象灾害的中长期预测产品，科学评估气象灾害可能导致的损失，预测灾害风险，完善气象灾害预警系统，提高防灾的能力。该计划通过开展及时有效的天气和气候预测服务、定期召开学术研讨会和短期培训班，提升对于洪涝、干旱、高温、寒潮和台风等灾害的预测水平，为带路国家和地区的民众生命财产安全、粮食安全和社会经济稳定发展保驾护航。
Due to the special geographical location of the countries along the “Belt and Road”, meteorological disasters occur frequently. The timely and accurate prediction of extreme meteorological disasters is an important way for scientific disaster prevention, and it is vital to guaranteeing personal safety and maintaining the sustainable development of countries along the route. The World Meteorological Organization has listed medium and long-term weather-climate predictions and extreme events as key research content. The IAP CAS will play a leading role in the Multi-model-Integrated Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction and Application in Disaster Risk Reduction(MISSPAD): ① The plan will use model dynamic forecasting methods and rely on China ’s supercomputing capabilities to expand more mature weather and climate forecasting services to target areas of B&R. ② Work closely with the business centers of the member states of the Union to improve the prediction skills of extreme meteorological disasters such as drought, flooding, heat wave, cold surge and tropical cyclone in B&R countries and regions. ③ At the same time that the model prediction products are applied to the meteorological disaster prediction business of the countries and regions along the route, based on the mid-term and long-term prediction products of extreme meteorological disasters, scientifically evaluate the possible losses caused by meteorological disasters, predict disaster risks, improve the early warning system for meteorological disasters, and improve prevention Disaster capacity. The plan promotes timely and effective weather and climate forecasting services, and regularly holds academic seminars and short-term training courses to improve the forecast level of disasters such as floods, droughts, high temperatures, cold waves and typhoons, and to protect the lives and property of people in the countries and regions that lead the way , escorted by food security and stable socio-economic development.
ANSO is a non-profit, non-governmental international scientific organization founded in 2018 by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and 36 other international science and education institutions from around the world. ANSO came into being under the principles of "joint consultation, joint effort and joint sharing" championed by the Chinese "Belt and Road Initiative".
ANSO is committed to promoting shared development, sustainable development and the advancement of the UN SDGs through catalyzing and implementing concrete international cooperation initiatives in Science, Technology & Innovation and Capacity Building (STIC). It is envisaged that ANSO will focus attention on the investigation and addressing of the most urgent regional and global scientific challenges. This focus includes supporting the needs and scientific capacity building of the Global South through partnerships and cooperation with the member countries and institutions. ANSO is an international organization designed to win global recognition and support through continuous activity, sound scientific programs and actions and success in addressing global needs and challenges.
Stretched-grid Downscaling S2S
Extreme Events Index 人口暴露度
Arctic Sea Ice
B&R countries and regions