LASG scientist co-convened BIRS workshop on Nonlinear and Stochastic Problems in Atmospheric and Oceanic Prediction

The Banff International Research Station for Mathematical Innovation and Discovery (BIRS) workshop on Nonlinear and Stochastic Problems in Atmospheric and Oceanic Prediction was held from November 19th to November 24th, 2017 in Banff Canada. Prof. DUAN Wansuo from the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) co-convened this workshop. The workshop centered around three themes nonlinear geophysical fluid dynamics, data assimilation, and predictability and prediction. Twenty-seven experts from China, Canada, US, and UK attended the workshop and presented talks. Participation in this workshop was on invitation basis and BIRS kindly sponsored all local costs.

Prof. DUAN co-chaired the predictability and prediction session and the last day discussion and gave talks together with other three IAP scientists Prof. DING Ruiqiang, Prof. ZHENG Fei and Dr. SUN Guodong. Prof. DING Ruiqiang presented application of NLLE in ensemble forecast and reported the approach of orthogonal nonlinear local Lyapunov vector (NLLV). Prof. DUAN Wansuo focused on the challenge of ENSO predictions due to diversities of El Nino and presented the optimal observational array for improving ENSO forecast skill.  Dr. SUN Guodong showed the usefulness of the CNOP in dealing with the effect of model parametric errors on predictability and emphasized the nonlinear interaction of multiply physical parameters is beneficial to improve the simulation ability and prediction skill of the soil moisture. Prof. ZHENG Fei suggested a new stochastic perturbation technique to improve the prediction skills of ENSO through using an intermediate coupled model.

The workshop provided a good opportunity to exchange latest findings in atmospheric and ocean prediction and promoted collaboration among participants. BIRS is a collaborative Canada-US-Mexico venture that provides an environment for creative interaction as well as the exchange of ideas, knowledge, and methods within the Mathematical Sciences, with related disciplines and with industry. It is supported by Canada's Natural Science and Engineering Research Council (NSERC), the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF), Alberta's Advanced Education and Technology, and Mexico's Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACYT)