返回
Climatic responses of extreme precipitation: manifestations and mechanisms
聂绩
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Peking University
Heavy rainfall is one of the most frequent, widespread severe weather hazards, and has disastrous impacts on societies and ecosystems. Here, I present three major findings of my research group and collaborators on the climate responses of extreme precipitation in the past several years. 1. Observations and simulations showed that for certain regions or cases, the extreme precipitation climate sensitivity is much greater than the increase of water vapor (i.e., the Clausius–Clapeyron scaling). Using an idealized simulation framework, we demonstrate that the increased latent heating leads to a dynamic amplification, leading to the super Clausius–Clapeyron sensitivity. 2. The extreme precipitation sensitivity has a distinct geographic pattern. By diagnosing CMIP simulations, we show that the nonlinear dependence of dynamical amplification on climatological moisture largely shapes the regional pattern. 3. We reveal that extreme storms will grow bigger in the future. The size expansion is due to the increased Rossby deformation radius under global warming.