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Weather to Seasonal Predictions at GFDL
周林炯
GFDL
A hierarchy of models at GFDL has been developed for various time and space scales, from very high-resolution weather prediction to centennial-scale earth-system simulations. We describe one part of this modeling suite, the System for High-Resolution Prediction on Earth-to-Local Domains (SHiELD). SHiELD is an atmosphere model coupling the non-hydrostatic FV3 Dynamical Core to a physics suite initially from the Global Forecast System. SHiELD can be used for various timescales but has been designed with a particular focus on short-to-medium range weather (18 hours to 10 days) and into the sub-seasonal to seasonal (several weeks to several months) range. SHiELD is designed to demonstrate new capabilities within its components, explore new model applications, and answer scientific questions through these new functionalities. Continued development of SHiELD has shown improvement compared to existing models. The flagship 13-km SHiELD demonstrates steadily improved large-scale prediction and precipitation prediction skills. SHiELD and the 25-km S-SHiELD demonstrate a superior diurnal cycle compared to existing climate models; the latter also demonstrates 28 days of useful prediction skill for the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The global-to-regional nested configurations T-SHiELD and C-SHiELD show significant improvement in hurricane structure from a new tracer advection scheme and promise for medium-range prediction of convective storms, respectively.